MERICS Foresight Workshop: Asessing the future trajectory of Europe-China relations

The relationship between Europe and China is at an inflection point. Relations have been overshadowed by economic tensions, China’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the ongoing dispute over access to China’s rare earth minerals for European companies, among many other points of friction. The weakening of the transatlantic alliance since US President Donald Trump came to office in January 2025 has introduced another layer of complexity. Despite attempts at cooperation on specific issues, such as climate change, the prospects for a structural improvement in EU-China ties seem slim.

To discuss these issues, MERICS organized a foresight workshop in Brussels. The workshop brought together about 20 participants from EU institutions, policymaking, and think tanks to discuss the trajectory of EU-China relations. Held in a closed-door, off-the-record setting, this interactive workshop encouraged informal discussions on the future of China’s international behavior and Europe policy, seeking to identify the trends and challenges that will most directly impact the EU and EU-China relations.

The workshop was co-organized by  MERICS and the European External Action Service's (EEAS) Divisions for China and for Policy Planning and Strategic Foresight and took place on September 22 at the EEAS in Brussels.

Moderators: 
Helena Legarda, Head of Program Foreign Relations, MERICS 
Grzegorz Stec, Head of Brussels Office and Senior Analyst, MERICS  

This foresight workshop was for key stakeholders in a confidential setting and by personal invitation only and was organized as part of the Horizon Europe-funded China Horizons project. The outcomes of the workshop will be additionally used to inform other MERICS projects and publications. 

This  MERICS China Foresight Workshop  is part of the “Dealing with a Resurgent China” (DWARC) project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 101061700. 

Views and opinions expressed do however not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.