MERICS China Forecast 2023

2023 will be a critical year for China. Following the sudden about-turn in Beijing’s Covid-19 policies, the country is currently struggling with an unprecedented health crisis. The economy is in deep trouble. At the same time, Xi Jinping looks set to hardwire the political agenda he pushed through at the historic 20th Party Congress in October and establish a new leadership team at the National People’s Congress in Spring. Internationally, Beijing is also facing multiple challenges, including its relationship with the US, its "no-limits" partnership with Russia and a re-calibration of China policies across Europe.

To anticipate what 2023 might have in store for us, we hosted the 4th MERICS China Forecast conference on Wednesday, January 18, 2023, in collaboration with our media partner Handelsblatt. MERICS presented findings from our annual survey among leading European experts and professionals and among a wider global audience on key developments in Europe-China relations. A prominent line-up of high-level speakers shared and discussed their expectations for the turbulent year ahead, including China’s political and economic trajectory and challenges for European governments and companies.

The results of the MERICS China Forecast 2023 are available here.

Rewatch our virtual conference on YouTube or here:

MERICS Forecast 2023 Agenda
 

12:00    Welcome and introduction by Mikko Huotari, Executive Director, MERICS

12:05    Live survey

12:10    Keynote 

•  Joerg Wuttke, President, EU Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC)

12:20     Panel 1 – “China’s political and economic trajectory in 2023”

• Alicia García-Herrero, Senior Fellow, Bruegel and Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, Natixis
• Charles Parton, Senior Fellow, MERICS 
• Joerg Wuttke, President, EU Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC) 

Moderator: Claudia Wessling, Director Communications and Publications, MERICS

13:00    Presentation of Forecast Survey results by Roderick Kefferpütz, Senior Analyst, MERICS

13:10     Panel 2 – “Challenges and opportunities for European China policy in 2023”

• Alexander Gabuev, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 
• Maria Martin-Prat, Deputy Director-General, DG Trade, European Commission
• Malin Oud, Director of China Programme, Raoul Wallenberg Institute

Moderator: Nicole Bastian, Head of Foreign Affairs Department, Handelsblatt

13:55     Closing remarks by Mikko Huotari

14:00    End of conference

The MERICS China Forecast 2023 is part of the “Dealing with a Resurgent China” (DWARC) project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 101061700. 

Views and opinions expressed do however not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.