MERICS Members Briefing - Economic Indicators Q4 2025: Record trade surplus masks domestic fragility​

On Tuesday, January 27, from 9:00 to 9:30 CET, MERICS held an online Members Briefing on China’s economic trajectory at the outset of 2026. Based on the latest edition of the MERICS Economic Indicators, our quarterly analysis on China’s economic data, our experts provided an update on the latest trends and their impact on Europe.

The Q4 2025 economic data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in January will set the tone for a year of fundamental decisions for China’s economic course. Although China achieved a record trade surplus of 1.2 trillion US Dollars in 2025, other key data such as fixed asset investments suggests China faces an uphill battle to keep growth momentum high in 2026. In late December, the Central Economic Work Conference placed boosting domestic demand front and center in efforts to steer China’s economy towards a smoother and more sustainable course. In March, Beijing will reveal its 15th Five Year Plan and lay out China’s economic priorities for the rest of the decade. The details of what is finally decided will have strong consequences for Europe. 

MERICS analysts Jacob Gunter and Alexander Brown analyzed the latest data and discussed the conclusions that China’s economic policymakers are drawing from it.

The meeting was confidential and by personal invitation only, as part of our portfolio for MERICS Members and key stakeholders.