Members Briefing: China's Economic Indicators: What do China's AI ambitions mean for jobs?

On October 23, MERICS held an online briefing for its Members and key stakeholders on China’s economic trajectory as the third quarter of 2026 drew to a close. Based on the latest edition of the MERICS Economic Indicators, our quarterly analysis on China’s economic data, our experts provided participants with an update on the latest trends and their impact on Europe.

China’s trade surplus is on track to reach a new record this year, rising to USD 938 billion for the January-September period. The Chinese export machine continues to buoy otherwise lackluster growth in consumption and investment. Part of the reason why consumption remains so weak is because of the bleak employment prospects facing China’s pool of recent graduates. The official jobless rate for people aged 16 to 24, excluding students, rose to 18.9% in August. While the AI boom is driving growth in China's high-tech sectors, the government's goal to accelerate the rollout of AI across all sectors could further undermine an already weak job market.

MERICS analysts Alexander Brown and Andreas Mischer examined the data from the last financial quarter, as well as recent employment trends in China and their future implications.