With renewables boost, China is building global green tech leadership

China released several sectoral policy blueprints as part of its 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), targeting a 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality. The plans for renewable energy development, a new energy system, and a new power system aim to entrench renewable energy as a reliable alternative and boost domestic consumption of renewables. The goal is a 53 percent increase in renewables consumption by 2030, and a share of wind and solar in total installed renewable capacity greater than 50 percent. 

The expected 3,500 GW in renewable capacity, with over 2,800 GW in wind and solar, seems achievable. China would need to install 160 GW of wind and solar annually, a pace it met with new solar installations alone in both 2024 and 2025. Even with such domestic buildout, Chinese green tech exports will not abate, dialing up competition for European firms both in China and abroad and reinforcing dependencies on Chinese products.

China aims to make renewable energy more reliable and convenient by improving grid flexibility and dependability. This includes new “firm capacity” targets for the amount of reliable wind and solar energy available during demand peaks and the addition of distributed grids (small-scale installations) for industrial parks and construction projects. And ramping up the regulating capacity of virtual power plants (connected networks of distributed grids) should make it easier to increase or decrease power on demand.

The sectoral FYPs also plan to develop cutting-edge renewables technology, including deep-sea offshore wind bases and offshore power transmission networks and 100 percent green power transmission in integrated solar-wind power bases. They also highlight research into off-grid production for green hydrogen (i.e., using independent energy systems that are not connected to an electrical grid). Though still an emerging energy source, China aims to produce 2 million tons by 2030.

This buildout will entrench China’s leadership in solar and wind and increase its competitiveness in green hydrogen. It is likely to boost Chinese exports of related clean technologies (solar modules, wind turbines and electrolyzers), which are already surging, partly due to their affordability and the conflict in the Middle East. For Europe, China’s dominance in these technologies will strengthen existing and emerging dependencies and challenge its industrial and energy autonomy.

MERICS Analyst Sophia Pradels: “China set ambitious goals to expand renewable energy use and improve grid efficiency to entrench green energy as a reliable alternative. While some goals may be difficult to achieve, expanded domestic demand will boost China’s global leadership in solar, wind, and likely in green hydrogen, further challenging European businesses at home and in third markets.”